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of a VR penetration forecast, but from my point of view, isn't skeptical enough:Boston-based Strategy Analytics said that 11.4 million Americans will own a VR headset by the end of 2016. With prices ranging from under $15 for a Google Cardboard headset to $800 for an HTC Vive, VR headsets will generate nearly $556 million worth of sales in the U.S. this year, according to the company. “Penetration in the U.S. is higher than in other countries, partly due to the greater number of headset giveaways to promote the technology,” said David MacQueen, analyst for Strategy Analytics’ global wireless practice, in a statement. “Samsung is giving away lots of Gears with new handsets, Google has given a lot away too, and even the New York Times gave 1.5 million to their subscribers to try out a series of VR documentaries.”
To be sure, tracking the total install base is important, and
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, but ownership is only part of the puzzle. The other key piece is usage, and from what we know now, most VR devices aren't not being used all that much.For example, that New York Times giveaway of Google Cardboard that Strategy Analytics mentions?
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:[A]ccording to Google Play,
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has only been installed 100,000-500,000 times. (This despite the fact that Google's shipped 5 million units of the Google Cardboard VR viewer,[To see links please register here]
.) On[To see links please register here]
, the analytics service, the app doesn't even register among Google Play's top 1000 apps (after a brief appearance at the top during its November launch), suggesting little viral or organic growth. Despite being frequently promoted on, you know, the world's most influential news site. [Feb 2016]
For that matter,
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:According to Google Play, the basic app itself has been downloaded 5-10 million times. Looking at third party Cardboard apps, only a handful have been downloaded between 100,000 to 500,000 times -- most of the rest, much less. Unless I'm missing it, only this Star Wars Cardboard app has gotten downloads in the 500,000-1 million range. These numbers indicate a strong "one try then bye bye" effect -- the vast majority of Cardboard owners downloading the main app and one or two more, noodling around a bit, then sticking it back on the shelf to gather dust.
We need two charts tracking both total ownership of a VR device and monthly active users, tracking all the people who use at least one VR app during any given month. Until we have that, be very skeptical about any bullish VR claim. And from what we know, the needle on that last metric is not moving all that much.
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